Thoughts on the Jessica Sanchez upset

This year's Final Two waiting for Idol host Ryan Seacrest to make the announcement.

Seconds before Ryan Seacrest opened the envelope that contained the results, I was ready to post this on Tweetdeck: "And the winner of American Idol Season 11 is... Phillip Phillips."

There was an awkward silence here in the office after the announcement was made. (Note: Has Ryan become less enthusiastic over this routine, too? Haha!)

As my way of saying Sabi na nga ba, I hit the "Send" button and watched as runner-up Jessica Sanchez was whisked to the background, joining the rest of this year's Top 12. Phillips was handed the mock-mic trophy by last year's winner, Scotty McCreery, and was reduced to a mixture of disbelief and tears.

The win wasn't surprising at all, though --- for the second time --- disappointing. (First upset for me was during Adam Lambert's time, but hey, who's hitting the charts now?)

I've come up with a number of reasons/theories on why the guitar-playing Georgia native won the title. But then again, these are just my observations as a long-time Idol fan, so please don't grill me.

Theory #1: the White Guy With Guitar (WGWG) trend

What surfaced on the WWW after the finale!

This one started in 2008 with the battle of the Davids, where guitar-playing rocker Cook won against young balladeer Archuleta, despite the former's "underwhelming" performances during the finals.

(Note: Former Idol judge Simon Cowell declared then that all three rounds went to Archuleta, but gave a safe prediction at the end of the finals night, saying that he didn't care "whoever wins" --- so unlike him since he got the winner right most of the time.)

"Cuties" with guitars followed suit: Kris Allen (Season 8), Lee Dewyze (Season 9), Scotty McCreery (Season 10), and now Phillips (Season 11).

And that's why we say in Filipino, "Mahirap talaga kalaban ang guwapo."

Theory #2: second performer wins the night

Six out of the ten Idol winners that came before PP performed second during the final showdown and won. Performing last apparently has its perks, especially since it makes for easier recall when the phone lines are opened for the last voting period.

here's the list of Idol winners from Seasons 1 to 11; names in bold were the only ones who went first during the finale:

Kelly Clarkson

Ruben Studdard

Fantasia Barrino

Carrie Underwood

Taylor Hicks

Jordin Sparks

David Cook

Kris Allen

Lee Dewyze

Scotty McCreery

Phillip Phillips

In PP's case, aside from going last, he got the lone standing ovation from the judges after his last performance. I mean, c'mon!

Theory #3: popularity contest

Because really, that's what keeps the show going, right? The votes! Some of the best singers were booted off the competition even when they least deserved it (read: Jennifer Hudson, Daughtry). As Jimmy Iovine had pointed out to Jessica, connecting with the audience --- appeal --- is important; it's not just about the voice.

The WGWG trend falls applies here, too, perhaps.

(Note: But that afterthought is a tricky one, given that early in the finals of Season 7, Cowell told Cook that "if this show remains a singing competition, you can actually win this." Then again, Cook really did well and was really crafty. The best WGWG there ever was, I believe!)

Theory #4: sympathy votes

After Joshua Ledet's elimination, leaving Jessica and PP to vie for the title, news swirled that the latter "desperately needed" surgery for his "persistent" kidney stone problems, which he refused to undergo until after the finale. For some, this meant instant votes for PP --- support out of sympathy. (Even my tita, who was rooting for PP, told me: "Parang nakakaduda 'yung pag-release ng balita. Saktong sakto.")

That aside, PP looked matamlay during the finale, and in a meet-up with the press after the shoe, Jessica herself said that he fought fair for the title and deserved it, given that he went on week after week with his health problems.

Theory #5: race/ethnicity

A friend of mine (who I met through a mutual juvenile addiction to Idol and Carrie Underwood) texted me this morning: "U think Jessica's gonna win?"

"Hoping pretty badly," I replied. I asked her why the question; she said: "'Coz my MA (master's degree) is migrant and diasporic literature and I believe a big part of America still hasn't changed pagdating sa minorities."

Twitter users would react the same way: "Of course, it's AMERICAN Idol."

Well, I'm not gonna question that.

Theory #6: Idol producers saw votes from the PHL... and acted accordingly

In that unifying act called "love your own," some Pinoys on social networking sites have been spreading Skype numbers that people from the Philippines can call to vote for Jessica. This theory was from Twitter. Did the "illegal" voters actually hurt Jessica's chances? Haha, I dunno, am just messing with y'all. But I kind of agree that voting from here would've been cheating.

As the previous point suggests: "Of course, it's AMERICAN Idol."

And last, but not the least...

Theory #7: that damn stage design and venue!

Idol finale 2007, when 16-year-old Jordin Sparks won

I keep on saying this, but my only basis is the pattern of wins (see Theory #2). Jordin Sparks, the last female to get the title, was crowned at the Kodak Theater with the old set ---  on center-stage, the designers maintained that prominent oblong screen that splits in two when a performer makes a "dramatic" entrance; the band sitting on both sides of the screen.

See that blue-purple thing behind them?
Staircase on finale set since 2008.

After that, Idol moved the finale to the Nokia Theater and had a new stage design (well, basically, they changed everything that following year, including the design of the studio), with a tall expanding staircase in the middle that also splits in two when needed. Since then, winning moments (the explosive singing, enormous stage presence, etc.) no longer matter, which led me to believe that the new set-up must not be conducive to them.

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Seriously though, we can come up with a long list of reasons as to why Jessica didn't win, even after her solid performances at the final showdown. She brought the house down by standing on that stage in full diva mode, using her voice alone, without a crutch (read: a musical instrument). In my humble opinion, her rendition of "The Prayer" (a duet popularized by Andrea Bocelli and Celine Dion, Charlotte Church and Josh Groban) alone crushed PP's three performances put together.

Jessica singing "You Are So Beautiful" (Top 5)

We could say that America got it wrong, that Jimmy Iovine should be faulted for the song choices, that Idol franchise creator Simon Fuller was stupid for making her sing Whitney on the first round (as USA Today pointed out: "You don't start with Whitney Houston, you end with Whitney. Because there's nowhere to go after her.")

We can rant all we want, but the fact remains that she didn't get enough votes to win the title.

Half-Filipino, yes, but more than that, an effortless diva

But I have high hopes for this 16-year-old, who leaves her audience in awe because of her stellar performances. She is, as judge Randy Jackson once said, "other-worldly." (An aside: This at 11? Seriously?)

She has been preparing for this her whole life, and even without the Idol crown, she's well on her way. What matters is that she did us proud the way no other Pinay on the show has done before. She gave her heart and, in turn, had the time of her life. And really, the best is yet to come.

For, as her fans on Twitter would say: "Phillip Phillips may have won the title, but Jessica Sanchez has won over the world."